The Dilemma that is Villanova

By now, a lot of us realize the plight Villanova has fallen into. Losers of five straight (vs. Syracuse, vs. St. John's, @ Notre Dame, @ Pittsburgh, and now USF in the Big East tournament), Joe Lunardi now has the Wildcats as a 11 seed...facing Xavier. (Interestingly enough for Cincinnati, they are projected as a 7 facing...Butler. Talk about tough 1st round games.) A lot of talk is flying around about whether Villanova is even a lock for the NCAA Tournament anymore. ESPN's Bubble Watch decided to keep them as a lock; I find this a problematic position to take. You really need to reassess the Wildcats' profile and make sure they're deserving. So here's the tale of the tape...Villanova.

Villanova Wildcats

Record: (21-11)
Big East Record: (9-10) [including USF loss in BE Tournament]
RPI: 37
SOS: 25
Last 10 Games: (3-7)
Marquee Wins: vs. UCLA [RPI: 33], vs. Temple [RPI: 29], vs. Cincinnati [RPI: 31], vs. Louisville [RPI: 21], @ Syracuse [RPI: 18], vs. West Virginia [RPI: 15].
Bad Losses: @ Providence [RPI: 152], @ Rutgers [RPI: 119], vs. South Florida [RPI: 150].
Record versus RPI Top 25: 3-7
Record versus RPI 26-100: 6-1
Record versus RPI 101-345: 11-3

Let's do the "eye test" with the Wildcats.
Record: Pass. 21-11 is a fine record, especially in the Big East.
Conference Record: Pass. 9-9 isn't great, but remember it's in the Big East. This conference tears people up.
RPI: Pass. An RPI this high pretty much insures inclusion into the tournament, but see the notable cases where this wasn't the case.
SOS: Pass. The Wildcats played UCLA, Tennessee, and Temple OOC, going 2-1. And with the brutal Big East, this number has to be high.
Last 10: Fail. 3-7 is not good enough to show you are trending upward during the crucial part of the season.
OVERALL: Pass. It's notable that no team has ever been chosen for the NCAA Tournament after losing the past 5 games, but I guarantee those teams didn't have the wins that the Wildcats have. Their seed will most certainly suffer, but they can't be kept out of this tournament. Personally, I currently have Villanova as a 10.